Brief Ukrainian Market overview

Exploring Economic Prospects: A Comprehensive Overview of the Ukrainian Market

TABLE OF CONTENT

GDP Growth

Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was estimated that the country's GDP growth rate for 2022 would be 3.4%. However, due to the destruction of infrastructure and economic slow down caused by the invasion, in 2022 Ukraine had seen a significant decline in its GDP of -29.1%.

Amid a stable energy framework and macro- financial solidity, domestic demand has surged, prompting a swifter economic rebound than anticipated. Consequently, the NBU has revised its real GDP growth forecast upwards from to . With the NBU projecting a dip in security risks by , increased investment during reconstruction, and lenient fiscal policies, economic expansion is expected to gain further momentum.

GDP growth, %

Inflation and exchange rate

From October 3, 2023, the NBU implemented a managed exchange rate flexibility within a defined corridor. With international reserves standing at approximately at the start of September 2023, the NBU can sustain exchange rate steadiness through market interventions.

In 2023's first half, robust domestic performance, a global dip in inflation, and Ukraine's stringent monetary stance enabled the NBU to notably revise its inflation projection for the year from to . The inflation rate is expected to keep falling, driven by enhanced security boosting production and investments, decreasing global energy prices, and the resurgence of domestic demand and wages, alongside adjustments in utility tariffs post-conflict.
Inflation y, %

International reserves

In 2022, Ukraine received over in aid from partner countries, of which over USD 14 bln was in grants. Thanks to this, it was possible to finance most of the deficit of the consolidated budget and increase international reserves to by the end of 2022. In 2023, international partners have already provided loans and grants to Ukraine in the amount of almost USD 28 bln, thanks to which Ukraine's international reserves reached a record at the end of September. According to the results of 2023, international aid is expected to reach . This will allow the National Bank of Ukraine to continue to maintain international reserves at a sufficient level.

International Reserves, USD, bln
The current level of international reserves is sufficient to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market.

Support from international partners

Since February 2022, Ukraine has received unprecedented external financial support in the total amount of USD 64.9 bln.

This financial assistance for Ukraine came from 22 countries of the world, the European Union, the World Bank, the European Investment Bank, and the International Monetary Fund.

The USA (USD 22.9 bln) and the EU (USD22.6 bln) are the largest donors.

Ukraine's state budget financing since the beginining ofhe full-scale war USD bln

Trade balance

During 2022, exports of Ukrainian goods stayed steady, despite obstruction of the Grain Corridor by Russia. At the same time, imports have risen significantly when compared to previous periods due to the need to buy alternative energy and fuel sources caused by Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Key achievements

Key achievements:

  • became an EU member candidate
  • obtained 5 "visa-free" regimes with the European Union incl.:
    - energy (ENTSO-e accession)
    - customs (NCTS accession)
    - transport (removed barriers for road transportation)
    - digital (mutual recognition of qualified electronic trust services)
    - economic (cancellation of all EU customs duties and quotas for Ukrainian goods)
  • secured import duties cancelation in trade with the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and the United States of America (steel imports only)
  • integrated in the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T)

International companies continue investing in Ukraine

International companies continue investing in Ukraine

  • ArcellorMittal. Continues the construction of the new ‘Karta III’ tailing storage facility
  • Bayer. Announced investment project worth USD 38+ mln for constructing agro-processing plant.
  • Head. Continues the construction of a USD 83 mln factory for the production of equipment for winter sports
  • Kingspan. Announced investment project worth USD 300+ mln for constructing 6 factories manufacturing sustainable building materials.
  • Risoil S.A. Continues the construction of a large-scale transshipment complex in the port of Chornomorsk.

Source

UkraineInvest. (2024, September). Guide to doing business in Ukraine. Government of Ukraine.

AR of Crimea
Territory:
26.9 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
4.5% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
796 km
Learn more
Cherkasy region
Territory:
20.9 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
3% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
188 km
Learn more
Chernihiv region
Territory:
31.9 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
5% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
140 km
Learn more
Chernivtsi region
Territory:
8.1 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
1% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
532 km
Learn more
Dnipropetrovsk region
Territory:
31.9 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
5% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
492 km
Learn more
Donetsk region
Territory:
26.5 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
4% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
755 km
Learn more
Ivano-Frankivsk region
Territory:
13.9 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
2% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
592 km
Learn more
Kharkiv region
Territory:
31.4 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
5% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
479 km
Learn more
Kherson region
Territory:
28.5 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
5% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
540 km
Learn more
Khmelnytskyi region
Territory:
20.6 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
3% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
325 km
Learn more
Kirovohrad region
Territory:
24.6 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
4% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
300 km
Learn more
Kyiv region
Territory:
28.1 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
5% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
0 km
Learn more
Luhansk region
Territory:
26.7 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
4% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
775 km
Learn more
Lviv region
Territory:
21.8 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
4% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
540 km
Learn more
Mykolaiv region
Territory:
24.6 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
4% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
489 km
Learn more
Odesa region
Territory:
33.3 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
6% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
475 km
Learn more
Poltava region
Territory:
28.7 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
5% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
306 km
Learn more
Rivne region
Territory:
20.1 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
3% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
330 km
Learn more
Sumy region
Territory:
23.8 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
4% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
334 km
Learn more
Ternopil region
Territory:
13.8 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
2% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
426 km
Learn more
Vinnytsia region
Territory:
26.5 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
4% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
270 km
Learn more
Volyn region
Territory:
20.1 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
3% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
490 km
Learn more
Zakarpattia region
Territory:
12.7 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
2% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
814 km
Learn more
Zaporizhzhia region
Territory:
28.5 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
5% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
557 km
Learn more
Zhytomyr region
Territory:
29.8 thsd sqare km
% of Ukraine:
5% of Ukraine's territory
Distance to Kyiv:
140 km
Learn more
Razom Invest Canada

Razom Invest Canada, a P.E.I.-based company headed by former Malpeque MP Wayne Easter, began teaching Ukrainians how to plant and harvest potatoes on a large scale last year.

Company:
Razom Invest Canada
Industry:
Industry
Duration:
2023 - present time
Learn more
Cameco and Energoatom

The contract aims to provide sufficient volumes of natural uranium hexafluoride (UF6), which consists of uranium and conversion services, to meet Ukraine’s full nuclear fuel needs through 2035.

Company:
Cameco and Energoatom
Industry:
Nuclear energy
Duration:
2024 - 2035
Learn more
Have a question? Want to share your success story?

Ask our experts any question, or book a meeting to share your success story.